Bermuda insurers faced with losses from a spate of catastrophes this year may be under a cloud with a silver lining after predictions that rate declines could be stayed or reversed at January 1 renewals.

Most on the minds of re/insurers based here may be on losses resulting from damage from four hurricanes ? Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne ? that have ripped across the Caribbean and into the US, so far this season. But some re/insurers may also have exposure to claims from a run of typhoons in Asia, as well as property damage from collapses at the Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris earlier this year and this week, in Dubai.

Although rates across many lines ? including property-catastrophe re/insurance pricing ? have been flattening out or declining, predictions now are that that trend could be reversed when most policies are renewed on January 1.

IPC Re CEO James Bryce told the frequency and severity of events across the globe this year was something not seen in the last five years. He cautioned that the presence of storm systems in the Atlantic, the earthquakes felt in California this week and "venting" volcanoes in both the US and Japan, should be a warning that more events could come and trigger further losses.

"We are only halfway through hurricane season, and it is always earthquake season," he said, adding that the airport collapses were expected to incur billion dollar claims not to speak of marine and energy claims from storm-damaged offshore oil rigs projected to add another $800 million to $1 billion to the bill.

This is not good news for an industry that has already been hit by significant claims this year with estimates from hurricane losses alone running to $20 billion.

"With all of this activity it has been a watershed quarter; a watershed year," Mr. Bryce said, calling the events "all fuel" for rate increases.

But Mr. Bryce predicted higher premium rates may well be seen across all lines not just on the property side citing the continued plague of legacy issues on some companies and "casualty overhang". "Rates could increase across the board with all of these risks."

In a statement yesterday, PXRe president and CEO Jeffrey Radke also predicted that rates could go up, saying he believed "these catastrophes will have a favourable impact on property catastrophe reinsurance rates in 2005, most notably in our key property retrocessional business, where we expect to see increased demand and rate increases".

Meanwhile, Endurance Specialty CEO Kenneth LeStrange told Business Insurance magazine that the discipline of property catastrophe underwriters, as "probably the most disciplined" segment in the overall property casualty market, would ensure rates did not slip too far.

He said property catastrophe "has more standardised terms and conditions; they're fair and appropriate for most customers," he said.

XL Capital reinsurance executive Henry Keeling told Business Insurance he also did not see rates "falling off a cliff".