Bermuda's beautiful beaches are the envy of the world but over the next 100 years they may disappear if a sea level rise of as much as 0.59 metres this century comes to pass, a third of the Island's beaches will be underwater.

In her climate change report, Dr. Anne Glasspool says: "With a concentration of tourist resorts on the more exposed South Shore, coupled with the fact that the favourite tourist beaches are located along this shoreline, any rise in sea level will have a negative impact.

"With a 0.59m rise (the upper limit of the International Panel for Climate Change 2007 predictions) it has been calculated that at least 31 percent of Bermuda's beach and dune habitats would be inundated."

If the ice sheets melt, it has been predicted that sea levels could rise by as much as two metres – which would result in a 54 percent loss of the Island's beaches and dunes.

"Beach structure and amenities, hotels and restaurants may also lose real estate through climate change. This will be compounded by the more intense hurricanes that are predicted." Stronger hurricanes will also lead to more beach erosion.

Dr. Glasspool says: "An integrated coastal zone management approach, building upon existing policy and legislation, may be the best adaptation strategy to inject resilience into our tourist industry.

"As part of an overall response strategy we might consider the adoption of increasingly rigorous building codes and other design and construction standards and mandatory building setbacks in coastal areas."

Meanwhile the future of the coral reefs, another factor in the Island's tourism economy, also impinges on climate change. They are not only vulnerable to storm damage, but rising sea surface temperatures could lead to their deterioration.

Dr. Glasspool notes however, that cases of coral bleaching are few in Bermuda compared to the Caribbean, due to our cooler temperatures.

"Bermuda may in fact be able to boast one of the healthiest coral reef systems, providing that other pressures to the marine environment are kept in check," she writes in her report.

Another factor which could severely impact on tourism in Bermuda is the adoption of greenhouse gas reduction policies, such as carbon quotas. "Tourism would be particularly affected given our geographic isolation and the travel distance required to get here," says Dr. Glasspool.

In terms of carbon emissions, a return flight from London to Bermuda results in 1.53 tonnes and a return flight to the US produces 0.28 tonnes. Recent research suggests cruise ship passenger emissions are actually higher than for air miles.