1993, the Finance Minister forecast yesterday.

The Hon. Dr David Saul's prediction of a turn-around comes amid optimism over economic statistics released by Government today.

They suggest the gloom brought on by the recession could shortly be lifted.

Tourist spending, prices, and retail sales -- key indicators -- all improved between April and June, according to the figures.

A disastrous slump in visitor arrivals in August has dampened some optimism, however.

Dr. Saul told The Royal Gazette he believed the Island had now plumbed the depths of the recession.

The United States presidential election should be the trigger for an economic resurgence -- whatever the result, he added.

"Hopefully we have reached the absolute bottom of the economic trough,'' he said.

"I believe we will continue as we are throughout the winter, and it will be next spring before we see some turn-around.'' Last year Dr. Saul forecast the economy would pick up towards the end of 1992.

Interviewed by The Royal Gazette he said: "I bet the US economy will definitely improve in the latter half of 1992.

"And Bermuda will lag just behind that. Towards the end of 1992 I see a definite move upwards in Bermuda.'' Today's hopeful economic indicators are in Government's economic bulletin for the second quarter of this year.

They show a 0.8 percent increase in April-June air arrivals compared with last year.

The number of cruise ship passengers, meanwhile, rose by 8.3 percent.

Tourists' expenditure went up as well -- cruise passengers splashing out $12.3 million, a 10.8 percent year-over-year rise, while air visitors spent $137.4 million, a 0.1 percent increase.

"It has really rebounded from a bad first quarter, and is back where it should be,'' explained Dr. Saul.

Consumer prices also dipped in the second quarter, and the decline in retail sales slowed.

In addition, the bulletin signals a relatively buoyant business sector, said Dr. Saul.

There were 40 new companies registered in the local sector -- 20 more than in the same period last year.

And there were 164 new incorporations in the international sector. This compares with 156 in 1991.

It marks a continuing influx of foreign currency earnings -- critical to Bermuda's long-term financial health.

In the hotel industry, the number of workers at the end of April stood at 4,451, a 2.3 percent increase.

Dr. Saul also pointed out the inflation rate had remained at 2.4 percent for three months running.

It's not all good news in the bulletin, however.

Residents travelling abroad bought $4.9 million of goods -- an increase over last year of 8.6 percent.

"We are still feeling the effects of the US recession. Overall, however, we are holding our own,'' said Dr. Saul.

"Things have stabilised, and will probably stay the way they are through the winter.

"The country's revenues are down, and we are simply not earning as much as we used to.

"We are in the doldrums at the moment, but hopefully things won't get any worse. There is a glimmer of light.'' Dr. Saul admitted last month's dismal arrival figures had disappointed Government.

Latest figures indicated Bermuda was heading for its worst air arrivals performance for August since the mid 1970s.

The tally for the first three weeks of August, and the last five days of July, was 40,782.

Last August saw the Island pull in 48,124 visitors, and August 1990 draw 48,349.

The Hon. Dr. David Saul.