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Hungary’s shift unlocks new hope for Nato and Ukraine

Péter Magyar, the leader of the election-winning Tisza Party, talks to the media before meeting Hungarian president Tamas Sulyok in the Alexander Palace in Budapest, Hungary. (Photograph by Robert Hegedus/MTI via AP)

The ousting this month of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán in a landslide electoral defeat has generated a flood of commentary. Much of it has been about the implications for far-right populism in Europe. Others have focused on the potential impact to US politics, given the close ties of President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement to Orbán’s Fidesz Party and the personal political capital expended by Vice-President JD Vance.

What has got less attention is how Orbán’s departure will affect geopolitics and military strategy, both in Europe and more broadly. How will his fall change dynamics in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, alter the calculus for Ukraine’s future, and shape the US-European Union relationship?

I first met Orbán soon after he was elected to the premiership for the second time, in the spring of 2010, as I travelled to Budapest in the company of the excellent US ambassador, Eleni Kounalakis (now the lieutenant-governor of California). Orbán struck me as charismatic and smart. His English was reasonably good, and his positions seemed well thought out. I walked away thinking he was someone I would enjoy working with. So much for first impressions.

We talked at length about Nato’s mission in Afghanistan, where Hungary had more than 600 soldiers, most engaged in training the Afghan National Security Forces. Orbán was generally supportive but clearly had his doubts about several other Nato missions, from peacekeeping in the nearby Balkans to counter-piracy off Somalia. When the war in Libya started a year later, Hungary declined to participate, and over the next decade Orbán became a massive thorn in the side of the alliance.

Worst of all, he moved ever closer to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, leading to controversial energy deals with Moscow and support for a variety of Russian positions in opposition to Nato’s goals.

Given the alliance’s requirement for full consensus on major issues, he was able to single-handedly hold off Sweden and Finland’s accession as members for more than a year. He did all he could to undermine European support for Ukraine. By the time of his rejection by the electorate, he was widely regarded as Putin’s top ally in Europe and a Trojan horse inside the alliance.

With his defeat, three key geopolitical and military advantages have emerged for the West. The first and most obvious is that Hungary will no longer seek to hamper European engagement and support for Ukraine. While there could be some lingering trouble from the leader of Slovakia, Robert Fico, the most passionate opponent of Nato and EU positions is gone.

This means that more direct military, financial and humanitarian aid can flow to Kyiv. This is more vital than ever, given the near-total US withdrawal of support under the Trump Administration. Nato will also have a freer hand to provide training, intelligence, technology and logistical support to the embattled Ukrainians. This is very bad news for Moscow.

A second strategic aspect of flipping Hungary back towards the West is geographic. Positioned at the heart of Central Europe, the Hungarians share borders with seven countries, including Ukraine. It is a crossroad nation that has been able to create strategic and logistical bottlenecks for Nato and the EU. (That role dates back to the Austro-Hungarian Empire of the 19th and 20th centuries, when the Hungarians used their geographic location to power their mercantile economy.)

With the nation likely to swing away from Moscow, it’s not just Ukraine but also its border with Serbia that looms large, given Putin’s constant efforts to expand Russian influence across the Balkans. In addition, Papa Air Base in western Hungary is home to Nato’s multinational Strategic Airlift Capability and the fleet of C-17 transport planes I depended on as supreme allied commander.

Finally, with Orbán’s departure, the Hungarian military can rapidly modernise and seamlessly integrate with Nato. While it has only about 30,000 troops, Hungary is investing in frontline, modern equipment — including new German Leopard 2A7 tanks and formidable Swedish JAS39 Gripen fighters. While it is barely meeting the old Nato goal of spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence, the incoming prime minister, Péter Magyar, of the centre-right Tisza party, has pledged to raise that to 5 per cent by 2034.

The end of Viktor Orbán’s long political domination of Hungary is great news on many fronts, not least for the Nato alliance.

James Stavridis is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, a retired US Navy admiral, former supreme allied commander of Nato, and vice-chairman at Carlyle

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Published April 24, 2026 at 7:59 am (Updated April 24, 2026 at 7:19 am)

Hungary’s shift unlocks new hope for Nato and Ukraine

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