Bermuda insurers and reinsurers’ combined ratios are expected to rise to about 92 per cent in 2025, up from 90.7 per cent in 2024, according to Fitch Ratings in its Bermuda Re/Insurance Monitor: 2026. Catastrophe losses are forecast to account for roughly eight percentage points of the 2025 combined ratio, driven mainly by the California wildfires, compared with 6.4 points a year earlier.

Fitch said the January 2026 reinsurance renewals marked a clear shift to a buyers’ market, particularly in property reinsurance, where rates fell by the largest margins in more than a decade. Softening conditions are expected to persist into the midyear 2026 renewals, although risk-adjusted returns should remain attractive.

Shareholders’ equity rose 12 per cent in the first nine months of 2025, supported by underwriting and investment gains, while return on equity is expected to remain near 17 per cent. Fitch also expects consolidation to continue as firms deploy excess capital, warning that deals lacking clear strategic rationale could be viewed negatively.